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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.